The Iran war and the limits of US power

The Iran War: A Reckoning for US Foreign Policy and Global Stability

At Web Summit Vancouver 2026, Ryan Grim hosted Professor Stephen Walt and Chris Hedges to discuss the Iran war. Professor Walt, advocating for a reduced US military presence, argued a diminished American footprint would foster stability. He asserted the US has destabilized the region for decades, citing the 2003 Iraq invasion and the rise of groups like ISIS. He proposed a US Middle East policy of normal relations, supporting aligned nations and distancing from others.

The war’s significant global impact includes higher energy and food prices, raising doubts among US allies about American judgment following a “catastrophic blunder.” Mr. Hedges attributed repeated US failures to an ideologically driven system where war industry-funded think tanks perpetuate the influence of consistently wrong figures. He also highlighted the degradation of the diplomatic service, with military and CIA influence overshadowing diplomacy, drawing parallels to the Iraq War’s “non-reality-based belief system.”

Mr. Hedges emphasized Iran’s significant leverage, its preparedness for a prolonged, existential battle, and the unprovoked attacks it has endured. The war’s economic consequences are severe for US allies, impacting global supply chains and potentially leading to a global depression if the Trump administration remains obstinate.

Professor Walt discussed Israel’s role in initiating the war, believing that without a 90-minute briefing by Benjamin Netanyahu, President Trump would not have launched the attack. He noted there was no imminent threat from Iran, and the decision was partly driven by an erroneous belief in the Iranian regime’s imminent collapse and Trump’s desire for historical acclaim.

To exit the war, Professor Walt asserted, the US must prioritize its own interests over Israel’s, admit its error, and accept a less favorable outcome. This requires explicitly informing Israel that US support for its war efforts against Iran will cease, even if it causes Israeli dissatisfaction, thus demonstrating American agency in foreign policy decisions.

Mr. Hedges observed a unique public reaction, lacking the usual “rally around the flag” effect. The Trump administration failed to build public support or consult allies. This, combined with effective Iranian propaganda, led to an unprecedented public sentiment of regret and even support for Iran’s resistance, a stark contrast to previous conflicts. Trump’s “peace candidate” promises created a sense of betrayal among supporters.

Mr. Hedges further criticized the US military-industrial complex, revealing its deficiencies against asymmetrical warfare. Iran’s relatively small budget and extensive underground missile infrastructure have proven highly effective against the US’s expensive, technologically superior hardware, leading to rapid exhaustion of US ammo supplies. He concluded by emphasizing Iran’s long-term preparation for a war without air superiority, utilizing cheap but effective munitions like drones. The heavily fortified Strait of Hormuz makes naval deployment extremely risky for the US fleet, highlighting strategic challenges.